2024: Crisis Management Days Conference Proceedings
Security and Protection (National and International Security, Corporate and Information Security, Disaster Risk Reduction)

Water crisis and security challenges in the era of climate change

Antonijo Cindrić
University of Applied Sciences Velika Gorica
Nives Jovičić
University of Applied Sciences Velika Gorica
Kruno Skendrović
University of Applied Sciences Velika Gorica

Published 2025-05-20

Keywords

  • water crisis,
  • climate change,
  • conflict,
  • security,
  • migration

How to Cite

Cindrić, A., Jovičić, N., & Skendrović, K. (2025). Water crisis and security challenges in the era of climate change. Crisis Management Days. Retrieved from https://ojs.vvg.hr/index.php/DKU/article/view/542

Abstract

The water crisis and climate change are global issues affecting billions of lives on Earth. Extreme weather conditions such as heatwaves, floods, hurricanes, and droughts, resulting from climate change, lead to the extinction of plant and animal species. All these changes drastically alter the supply and quality of drinking water, crucial for agriculture, human consumption, industrial production, and nature conservation. When the supply of drinking or technical water exceeds demand, a water crisis occurs. Hunger, conflicts, diseases, and migrations are possible outcomes of such a crisis. To better cope with climate change and water crises, measures need to be taken at all levels of government, from local to national, as well as internationally. The paper explores the connection between climate change and water crisis and how global warming, precipitation changes, and extreme weather conditions shape the availability and quality of water, especially in arid regions. Special emphasis is placed on the necessity of adaptation and efficient water resource management to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on water supply, agriculture, ecosystems, and human health. Through concrete examples from different parts of the world, current challenges and approaches to addressing the water crisis in the context of increasingly pronounced climate change are investigated.

References

  1. Alcamo, J., Flörke, M., & Märker, M. (2007). Future long-term changes in global water resources driven by socio-economic and climatic changes. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 52(2), 247-275.
  2. Arora, N. K., & Mishra, I. (2022). Sustainable development goal 6: global water security. Environmental Sustainability, 5(3), 271-275.
  3. Audi, M., Ali, A., & Kassem, M. (2020). Greenhouse gases: A review of losses and benefits. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 10(1), 403-418.
  4. Bhaduri, A., Bogardi, J., Siddiqi, A., Voigt, H., Vörösmarty, C., Pahl-Wostl, C., ... & Osuna, V. R. (2016). Achieving sustainable development goals from a water perspective. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 4, 64.
  5. Bildirici, M. E., Lousada, S., & Yılmaz Genç, S. (2022). Terrorism, Freshwater, and Environmental Pollution: Evidence of Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Iraq, Arab Republic of Egypt, Cameroon, Mali, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Somalia, Syrian Arab Republic, and Pakistan. Water, 14(17), 2684.
  6. Biswas, A. K. (1999). Water crisis: current perceptions and future realities. Water International, 24(4), 363-367.
  7. Biswas, A. K., & Tortajada, C. (2019). Water crisis and water wars: myths and realities. International Journal of Water Resources Development, 35(5), 727-731.
  8. Chellaney, B. (2013). Water, peace, and war: Confronting the global water crisis. Rowman & Littlefield.
  9. Clarke, R. (2013). Water: the international crisis. Routledge.
  10. Cosgrove, W. J., & Loucks, D. P. (2015). Water management: Current and future challenges and research directions. Water Resources Research, 51(6), 4823-4839.
  11. De Fraiture, C., Fuleki, B., Giordano, M., Kodituwakku, D. C., Molden, D., Mukherji, A., ... & Suhardiman, D. (2009). Trends and transitions in Asian irrigation: What are the prospects for the future. In IWMI-FAO Workshop on Asian Irrigation (FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, 2009).
  12. Dinar, A., Tieu, A., & Huynh, H. (2019). Water scarcity impacts on global food production. Global Food Security, 23, 212-226.
  13. Douville, H., Allan, R. P., Arias, P. A., Betts, R. A., Caretta, M. A., Cherchi, A., ... & Renwick, J. (2022). Water remains a blind spot in climate change policies. Plos Water, 1(12), e0000058.
  14. Eckstein, G. E. (2009). Water scarcity, conflict, and security in a climate change world: challenges and opportunities for international law and policy. Wis. Int'l LJ, 27, 409.
  15. Ercin, A. E., & Hoekstra, A. Y. (2014). Water footprint scenarios for 2050: A global analysis. Environment international, 64, 71-82.
  16. Fernandes, L. (2018). Inter-State Water Disputes in South India. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Asian History.
  17. Fingar, T (2008). Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030, Statement for the Record , House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, https://fas.org/irp/congress/2008_hr/062508fingar.pdf.
  18. Guo, J. (2021). Under the weather: How climate change is affecting human mortality. Monash University. https://lens.monash.edu/2021/07/08/1383468/under-the-weather-how-climate-change-is-affecting-human-mortality
  19. He, L., & Rosa, L. (2023). Solutions to agricultural green water scarcity under climate change. PNAS nexus, 2(4), pgad117.
  20. He, P., Baiocchi, G., Hubacek, K., Feng, K., & Yu, Y. (2018). The environmental impacts of rapidly changing diets and their nutritional quality in China. Nature Sustainability, 1(3), 122-127.
  21. IHME, Global Burden of Disease (2024); World Bank (2023). https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/death-rates-unsafe-water-vs-gdp?time=2021
  22. IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp
  23. Jury, W. A., & Vaux Jr, H. J. (2007). The emerging global water crisis: managing scarcity and conflict between water users. Advances in agronomy, 95, 1-76.
  24. Karl, T. R. (2009). Global climate change impacts in the United States, A State of Knowledge Report. New York, New York, USA.
  25. Kovačević, B., & Kovačević, I. (2018). Klimatske promjene:(mit ili realnost). Evropski defendologija centar za naučna, politička, ekonomska, socijalna, bezbjednosna, sociološka i kriminološka istraživanja.
  26. Kumar, A. (2018). Global Warming, Climate Change and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation. In: Kumar, A., Ogita, S., Yau, YY. (eds) Biofuels: Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Global Warming. Springer, New Delhi. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-81-322-3763-1_1
  27. Liu, J., Yang, H., Gosling, S. N., Kummu, M., Flörke, M., Pfister, S., ... & Oki, T. (2017). Water scarcity assessments in the past, present, and future. Earth's future, 5(6), 545-559.
  28. McNeill, K., Macdonald, K., Singh, A., & Binns, A. D. (2017). Food and water security: Analysis of integrated modeling platforms. Agricultural Water Management, 194, 100-112.
  29. Mekonnen, M. M., & Hoekstra, A. Y. (2016). Four billion people facing severe water scarcity. Science advances, 2(2), e1500323.
  30. Misachi, J. (2018) Which Country Has the Most Fresh Water? https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/countries-with-the-most-freshwater-resources.html
  31. Morrison, J., Morikawa, M., Murphy, M., & Schulte, P. (2009). Water Scarcity & climate change. Growing risks for business and investors, Pacific Institute, Oakland, California.
  32. Mraz, A. L., Tumwebaze, I. K., McLoughlin, S. R., McCarthy, M. E., Verbyla, M. E., Hofstra, N., ... & Murphy, H. M. (2021). Why pathogens matter for meeting the united nations’ sustainable development goal 6 on safely managed water and sanitation. Water Research, 189, 116591.
  33. Mueller, J. T., & Gasteyer, S. (2021). The widespread and unjust drinking water and clean water crisis in the United States. Nature Communications, 12(1), 3544.
  34. Pacific Institute. (2022). https://pacinst.org/water-and-conflict/
  35. Paillard, D. (2008). From atmosphere, to climate, to Earth system science. Interdisciplinary Science Reviews, 33(1), 25-35.
  36. Prüss-Üstün, A. B., Gore, R. F. and Bartram, J. (2008). Safer water, better health: costs, benefits and sustainability of interventions to protect and promote health. World Health Organization, Geneva.
  37. Ranjan, A. (2020). Contested waters: India's transboundary river water disputes in South Asia. Routledge India.
  38. Ray, B. (2011). Climate change: IPCC, water crisis, and policy riddles with reference to India and her surroundings. Lexington Books.
  39. Rogers, P. P., Llamas, M. R., & Cortina, L. M. (Eds.). (2005). Water crisis: myth or reality?. CRC Press.
  40. Swatuk, L. A. (2021). Global water crises and challenges for water security. In Handbook of Security and the Environment (pp. 40-61). Edward Elgar Publishing.
  41. UN. (2015). Transforming Our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development; Springer: New York, NY, USA
  42. Vanham, D. (2016). Does the water footprint concept provide relevant information to address the water–food–energy–ecosystem nexus?. Ecosystem services, 17, 298-307.
  43. Vorosmarty, C. J., Green, P., Salisbury, J., & Lammers, R. B. (2000). Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth. science, 289(5477), 284-288.
  44. Vörösmarty, C. J., McIntyre, P. B., Gessner, M. O., Dudgeon, D., Prusevich, A., Green, P., ... & Davies, P. (2010). Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity. nature, 467(7315), 555-561.
  45. Wang, D., Hubacek, K., Shan, Y., Gerbens-Leenes, W., & Liu, J. (2021). A Review of Water Stress and Water Footprint Accounting. Water, 13(2), 201. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13020201
  46. Wei, T., Dong, W., Yan, Q., Chou, J., Yang, Z., & Tian, D. (2016). Developed and developing world contributions to climate system change based on carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions. Advances in atmospheric sciences, 33, 632-643.
  47. WHO/UNICEF Joint Water Supply, & Sanitation Monitoring Programme. (2015). Progress on sanitation and drinking water: 2015 update and MDG assessment. World Health Organization Geneva, Switzerland
  48. Wilson, N. J., Shah, S. H., Montoya, T., Grasham, C. F., Korzenevica, M., Octavianti, T., ... & Sultana, F. (2024). Climate–water crises: critically engaging relational, spatial, and temporal dimensions. Ecology and Society, 29(4).
  49. World Health Organization. (2002). The world health report 2002: Reducing risks, promoting healthy life. World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
  50. WWF. (2024): https://www.worldwildlife.org/threats/water-scarcity
  51. Zhao, Q., Guo, Y., Ye, T., Gasparrini, A., Tong, S., Overcenco, A., ... & Li, S. (2021). Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study. The Lancet Planetary Health, 5(7), e415-e425.