Climate changes in the Adriatic sea

Abstract

Introduction

The Adriatic Sea, a semi-enclosed body of water between the Italian Peninsula and the Balkan Peninsula, is part of the Mediterranean basin, which has been experiencing significant impacts from climate change. The Adriatic, known for its biodiversity and economic importance—especially in tourism, fisheries, and maritime activities—is highly vulnerable to shifts in climatic conditions. Several studies have shown that warming sea temperatures, changing salinity levels, altered precipitation patterns, rising sea levels, and increased frequency of extreme weather events are among the most noticeable climate-related changes affecting the Adriatic Sea (Pizzuto et al., 2020; Bianchi et al., 2019). The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of climate change in the Adriatic Sea, focusing on its physical, ecological, and socio-economic consequences. Through a comprehensive review of scientific literature and an analysis of the region’s climate data, we aim to highlight the main impacts of climate change and discuss potential adaptation strategies for mitigating these effects.

Methodology

This study follows a systematic review methodology to assess existing research on climate change in the Adriatic Sea. We gathered and analyzed peer-reviewed journal articles, reports from governmental and environmental organizations, and scientific surveys published between 2010 and 2024. The search focused on key terms such as "climate change," "Adriatic Sea," "temperature rise," "sea level rise," "biodiversity," and "ecosystem services." Sources were selected based on relevance, scientific rigor, and geographic coverage.

For the assessment of physical changes, we reviewed sea temperature data, salinity measurements, and sea level records, using data collected from regional monitoring programs and international databases such as the European Environment Agency (EEA) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). In terms of ecological changes, studies on the migration patterns of marine species, coral health, and fisheries sustainability were examined. For socio-economic impacts, reports on tourism, agriculture, and coastal infrastructure were analyzed, with a particular focus on climate-induced damage to coastal areas and their economies.

Main Results

1. Rising Sea Temperatures

One of the most evident impacts of climate change in the Adriatic is the rise in sea temperatures. According to recent studies, the average temperature of the Adriatic Sea has increased by approximately 1.2°C over the past century, with significant acceleration in recent decades (Pizzuto et al., 2020). This temperature rise is causing shifts in marine biodiversity, with species that thrive in warmer waters becoming more prevalent, while those accustomed to cooler conditions, such as cold-water fish species, are migrating northward or facing population declines. The warming of the sea is having consequences on the health of marine ecosystems, particularly coral reefs, seagrass meadows, and plankton communities, which are vital for the overall ecological balance of the sea.

1. Changes in Salinity

The salinity levels in the Adriatic have also been affected by climate change, particularly through alterations in precipitation patterns and freshwater inflows from rivers. Reduced rainfall and increased evaporation due to higher temperatures are contributing to a higher salinity in the northern parts of the Adriatic. In contrast, lower salinity levels are observed in the southern regions, where freshwater inflows are relatively more abundant (Bianchi et al., 2019). These changes in salinity have implications for marine life, particularly for species that rely on stable salinity conditions for survival, growth, and reproduction. Shifts in salinity may also lead to the proliferation of invasive species that are more tolerant of fluctuating conditions.

1. Sea Level Rise

Like many other coastal regions, the Adriatic is experiencing a gradual rise in sea level. Data from tide gauges and satellite measurements show a steady increase in the sea level of approximately 1-3 millimetres per year since the 20th century (EEA, 2022). This rise, while not as rapid as in some other regions, poses a long-term threat to low-lying coastal areas. Increased sea levels lead to the erosion of beaches, damage to infrastructure, and the loss of coastal wetlands, which are important for biodiversity and buffers against storm surges. Coastal cities like Venice and Dubrovnik are particularly vulnerable to this phenomenon, facing both gradual flooding and the risk of severe damage from extreme weather events.

1. Increased Frequency of Extreme Weather Events

The Adriatic region is also witnessing an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. These include heavy rainfall, storms, heat waves, and droughts. Extreme precipitation events, which are projected to increase in frequency under future climate scenarios, have already led to flash floods and river overflow in several coastal cities (Medić et al., 2021). Additionally, prolonged heatwaves are becoming more common, placing stress on agricultural production, water resources, and tourism infrastructure. The occurrence of intense storms, coupled with rising sea levels, increases the vulnerability of coastal communities to storm surges and flooding, thereby threatening both human settlements and natural coastal habitats.

1. Impacts on Marine Biodiversity and Fisheries

Climate change is significantly affecting marine biodiversity in the Adriatic. Warmer sea temperatures are driving the migration of species such as fish, molluscs, and plankton to cooler northern waters, disrupting established marine food webs (Giani et al., 2020). This shift in species composition threatens the sustainability of local fisheries, as traditional catches are declining and fishers are forced to adapt to new, sometimes less commercially viable species. Overfishing, combined with climate-induced changes, has led to concerns about the long-term health of Adriatic marine ecosystems, with certain fish stocks being pushed to unsustainable levels.

1. Socio-Economic Impacts

The socio-economic consequences of climate change in the Adriatic are profound, particularly for tourism, agriculture, and fisheries. Tourism, a major industry in the Adriatic, is facing both opportunities and challenges. The growing appeal of warmer summers may attract more tourists, but extreme weather events, like storms and heat waves, could deter visitors and damage tourist infrastructure (Medić et al., 2021). Similarly, agricultural production is under pressure due to shifting precipitation patterns and prolonged droughts, which are affecting crop yields and water availability. Coastal infrastructure, including ports, roads, and buildings, is increasingly at risk from rising sea levels and extreme weather events, leading to higher costs for maintenance and adaptation.

Conclusion

Climate change is having a multifaceted impact on the Adriatic Sea, influencing its physical characteristics, biodiversity, and socio-economic sectors. Rising sea temperatures, changes in salinity, sea level rise, and extreme weather events are all contributing to significant shifts in marine and coastal ecosystems, with implications for human populations. Effective adaptation strategies, including the protection of coastal zones, the management of marine resources, and the promotion of climate-resilient infrastructure, are essential to mitigate the long-term effects of climate change in the region.