Crisis Management Days

Aerial threats: Aviation accidents, drones, and Zagreb's vulnerability

Suzana Bonc

Grad Zagreb

Ozren Ilijaš

Keywords: aircraft accident, aerial threats, drones, risk mitigation, RCC Croatia, BVLOS SAR, spatial vulnerability, Zagreb

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Abstract

Air traffic at airports in the European Union is growing significantly, with aircraft overflights becoming more intense, while drones are increasingly affordable - transforming into a powerful potential terrorist weapon capable of carrying a 1-5 kg explosive payload with BVLOS range of up to 15 km, or posing risks through irresponsible use that endangers densely populated areas. The resilience of the City of Zagreb increasingly depends on preparedness for aerial threats, necessitating a paradigm shift in risk assessment—from ground-based anthropogenic hazards toward analysis of airborne threats (manned aircraft, unmanned aircraft systems (UAS)/drones, space debris). This paper ranks the spatial risk across the City of Zagreb, identifies vulnerabilities, and proposes concrete risk mitigation measures: a localized response concept integrated into the Rescue Coordination Centre (RCC) of the Republic of Croatia / State Meteorological and Civil Aviation Service (SMC) system, BVLOS drones for Search and Rescue (SAR) operations (+50% operational efficiency), counter-UAS protection zones, and no-fly zones (e.g., Ban Jelačić Square, Žitnjak Industrial Zone). The outcome is a reduced risk profile for the Zagreb area.

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References

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