Crisis Management Days

Predicting Crises: Monte Carlo Simulation in Digital Twin Systems

Iva Golubić

Veleučilište Velika Gorica

Marjana Kuliš

Veleučilište Velika Gorica

Dora Trbara

Veleučilište Velika Gorica

Keywords: digital twins, crises management, simulation, Monte Carlo method

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Abstract

In recent years, the concept of a digital twin has emerged as a powerful tool for understanding and managing complex real-world systems. A digital twin is a virtual representation of a system that exists in our reality and is continuously updated using real-time data. By combining data, computational models, and visualization, digital twins allow us to monitor, analyze, and predict the behaviour of systems in a safe and controlled digital environment. Originally developed in engineering and manufacturing, digital twins are now increasingly applied in areas such as urban planning, healthcare, infrastructure management and, of course, crisis management.

At the core of every digital twin lies simulation. In crises management digital twins provide a valuable solution by enabling the simulation of crisis scenarios before they occur. Simulation allows us to recreate the behaviour of a real system within a computer model and observe how it evolves over time. This is essential in crisis management, where testing real-world scenarios is often impossible, dangerous, or too costly. By simulating different conditions, such as varying levels of demand, environmental changes, or system failures, we can better understand how a system behaves. Instead of relying solely on past experience or static models, decision-makers can explore multiple possible scenarios and evaluate the consequences of different actions.

For example, a digital twin of a city can simulate the impact of flooding, allowing authorities to test evacuation strategies, identify vulnerable areas, and allocate resources more effectively. Similarly, digital twins of healthcare systems can be used to predict patient flow and assess the capacity of hospitals during emergencies.

Since simulation is maybe the most important role of a digital twin, we decided to pay more attention to it and explain it from a mathematical point of view. We decided upon the Monte Carlo simulation method. This method is based on running a large number of simulations, each with slightly different input values, to explore a wide range of possible outcomes. Instead of producing a single prediction, the Monte Carlo method provides information about the probability of different scenarios. In this paper, the Monte Carlo method will be introduced in a simple and intuitive way, suitable for a general audience. A concrete example will be used to demonstrate how the method works thus showing the importance of the integration of this method into a digital twin framework for crisis management.

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