Overall Seismic Risk in Bosnia-Herzegovina/Dalmatia Region of Croatia and Elements of Perfect Crisis in an Earthquake Aftermath
Bosnia-Herzegovina and southern-coastal/hinterland-region of Dalmatia, Republic of Croatia are a part of the same seismo-tectonic province and share a considerable and real threat of high-magnitude earthquakes. Numerous Magnitude 6 (Richter) and above earthquakes have been recorded in the past 500 years and some of them have resulted in a considerable loss of life, material and even prestige or geopolitical significance (e.g. the demise of Ragusa in the earthquake of 1667). Given the propensity of the region for destructive earthquakes, complex geomorphological framework and challenging infrastructure, still recovering in parts from the Yugoslav civil wars of the 1990s., the region may yield a “perfect” crisis in the aftermath of a major earthquake event. Taking into consideration unchecked development of several metropolitan areas, lack of oversight and permitting, decaying infrastructure as well as unresolved political ambiguities and territorial disputes, a potential destructive earthquake may create several cascading crises, especially if it coincides with some other challenging events (e.g. winter storms). This study is taking into consideration several scenarios, their possible effects and resulting conditions upon which cascading crises may arise in the aftermath of a magnitude 7+ earthquake affecting several major urban areas in southern and central Bosnia-Herzegovina and the southern Dalmatian region of Croatia. These scenarios are intended to provide training aids and risk assessments in countering the destructive forces after the earthquake, expected to test the current crisis-management models.
Bajrovic, R., Kraemer, R., & Suljagic, E. (2018, March 16). Bosnia on the Russian Chopping Block: The Potential for Violence and Steps to Prevent It. Foreign Policy Research Institute, p. 4.
BH-SPS. (2020). Unofficial Field Reports for 2017-2019. Sarajevo: Written communication from Bosnia and Herzegovina Service for Foreigner's Affairs.
Border Police of Bosnia and Herzegovina. (2019, September 11). Handover of specialist equipment donation of the Czech Republic to Border Police of BiH, Sarajevo. Press Release, p. 2.
Bougarel, X. (1999). Yugoslav Wars: The revenge of the countryside between sociological reality and nationalist myth. East European Quarterly, Vol 33. No. 2, 157-175.
Cocco, E. (2017). Where is the European frontier? The Balkan migration crisis and its impact on relations between the EU and the Western Balkans. European View, 16, 293-302.
Dzhambazova, B. (2018, 11 27). In Serbia, a Former Military Base Finds a New Role. The New York Times.
European Commission. (2019). Analytical Report: Commission Opinion on Bosnia and Herzegovina’s application for membership of the. Brussels: European Commission.
European Commission. (2019). Expert Report on Rule of Law issues in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Brussels: European Commission.
Europol. (2019, October 22). EUROPOL supports action days in Croatia, Slovenia and Bosnia-Herzegovina. EUROPOL Press release.
Galeotti, M. (2018). Do the Western Balkans face a coming Russian storm; Policy Brief. Berlin: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
Kalan, D. (2019, February 20). In Bosnia, a Migrant Way Station Is Becoming a Winter Prison. Foreign Policy.
Kesetovic, Z., Korajlic, N., & Toth, I. (2013). Krizni Menadzment (Crisis Management). Sarajevo / Velika Gorica: Univerzitet u Sarajevu, BiH i Veleuciliste Vilka Gorica, Hrvatska.
Lakic, M. (2018, October 11). Serbia Blames System’s ‘Abuse’ for Restoring Visas for Iranians. Balkan Investigative Reporting Network (BIRN).
Losh, J. (2016, January 29). Putin's Angels: the bikers battling for Russia in Ukraine. The Guardian.
Massey, D., Durand, J., & Pren, K. (2016). Why Border Enforcement Backfired. AJS, Vol. 121, No.5, 1557-1600.
OSCE. (2018). Assessment: Migrant and Refugee Situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina; An overview of the intervention of key actors in the field. Sarajevo: The Office of Security and Cooperation in Europe: Bosnia and Herzegovina Office.
Ostojic, R. (2016). A European Perspective of the Migration Crisis: Croatian Experiences. Zagreb: Politik Fur Europa 2017-plus.
Padurariu, A. (2014). The Implementation of Police Reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Analysing UN and EU Efforts. Stability: International Journal of Security and Development, 3(1), p.Art. 4. .
Parker, C., Persson, T., & Widmalm, S. (2019). The effectiveness of national and EU-level civil protection systems: evidence from 17 member states. Journal of European Public Policy, Vol. 26, Issue 9, 1312-1334.
Pavlakovic, V. (2013). Symbols and the culture of memory in the Republika Srpska Krajina. Nationalities Papers, Vol. 41, N.6.
Radio Free Europe. (2015, 30 8). Migrants Escape from Hungarian Camp. Radio Free Europe Broadcast.
Rothenberg, G. (1960). The Origins of the Austrian Military Frontier in Croatia and the Alleged Treaty of 22 December 1522. The Slavonic and East European Review, Vol. 38, No. 91 , 493-498.
Rothenberg, G. (1964). The Croatian Military Border and the Rise of Yugoslav Nationalism. The Slavonic and East European Review, V.43 No.100, 34-45.
Secrieru, S. (2019, July). Russia in the Western Balkans: Tactical Wins, Strategic Setbacks. EU Institute for Security Studies, Brief, p. 6.